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<h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Threshold-Modell</span></h1>
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<p>Das <b>Threshold-Modell</b> (<i>Schwellenwertmodell</i>) ist ein mathematisches Modell, bei dem sich ab einem <a href="Schwellenwert_(Chemie)" title="Schwellenwert (Chemie)">Schwellenwert</a> das Ergebnis der Modellberechnung stark ändert.
</p>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Geschichte">Geschichte</h2></div>
<p>Das Konzept der Schwellenwerte in biologischen Systemen wurde erstmals in den 1930er Jahren untersucht, insbesondere von <a href="Sewall_Wright" title="Sewall Wright">Sewall Wright</a> zur Erklärung diskreter Merkmale wie der Anzahl von Zehen bei Meerschweinchen.
Ab den 1960er Jahren wurden die Modelle von Douglas Scott Falconer auf quantitative Merkmale und Erbkrankheiten ausgeweitet.<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Moderne Anwendungen und Erweiterungen stammen u. a. von Axel Lange und Kollegen (2018).
</p>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Eigenschaften">Eigenschaften</h2></div>
<p>In der <a href="Radiologie" title="Radiologie">Radiologie</a> und im <a href="Strahlenschutz" title="Strahlenschutz">Strahlenschutz</a> wird es, neben dem <a href="LNT-Modell" title="LNT-Modell">LNT-Modell</a> und der <a href="Hormesis" title="Hormesis">Hormesis</a>, zur Beschreibung der Auswirkungen von <a href="Ionisierende_Strahlung" title="Ionisierende Strahlung">ionisierender Strahlung</a> auf die Entstehung von <a href="Krebs_(Medizin)" title="Krebs (Medizin)">Krebs</a> verwendet.<sup id="cite_ref-Costantini_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Costantini-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In der <a href="Pharmakologie" title="Pharmakologie">Pharmakologie</a> und <a href="Toxikologie" title="Toxikologie">Toxikologie</a> wird es eingesetzt, um Schwellenwerte einer <a href="Wirkstoff" title="Wirkstoff">Wirkstoffgabe</a> in der <a href="Dosis-Wirkungs-Beziehung" class="mw-redirect" title="Dosis-Wirkungs-Beziehung">Dosis-Wirkungs-Beziehung</a> zu erklären,<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> z. B. beim <a href="NOEL" title="NOEL">NOEL</a> und beim <a href="NOAEL" title="NOAEL">NOAEL</a>. In der <a href="Medizin" title="Medizin">Medizin</a> wird es bei der Entscheidung über Verfahren eingesetzt.<sup id="cite_ref-PMID10084191_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-PMID10084191-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In der <a href="Genetik" title="Genetik">Genetik</a> wurde 1934 die Bildung eines zusätzlichen Zehs an den hinteren Füßen von Meerschweinchen von <a href="Sewall_Wright" title="Sewall Wright">Sewall Wright</a> mit dem Modell erklärt, die nicht zu den bekannten Modellen eines <a href="Dominant-rezessiv" class="mw-redirect" title="Dominant-rezessiv">dominant-rezessiven</a> oder <a href="Intermedi%C3%A4rer_Erbgang" class="mw-redirect" title="Intermediärer Erbgang">intermediären Erbgangs</a> passten.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Erweiterungen des Modells wurden ab 1960 von Douglas Scott Falconer<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> und 2018 von Axel Lange und Kollegen beschrieben.<sup id="cite_ref-PMID29739620_11-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-PMID29739620-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In der Mathematik gehört die Segmentierte Regression und einige nichtlineare autoregressive Modelle, die für <a href="Zeitreihenanalyse" title="Zeitreihenanalyse">Zeitreihenanalyse</a> formuliert wurden,<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> zu den Schwellenwertmodellen.
</p>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Mathematische_Aspekte">Mathematische Aspekte</h2></div>
<ul><li>Schwellenwertmodelle lassen sich mit Segmentierte Regression oder nichtlinearen autoregressiven Modellen für <a href="Zeitreihenanalyse" title="Zeitreihenanalyse">Zeitreihenanalyse</a> mathematisch beschreiben.<sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li>
<li>Sie eignen sich zur Modellierung von Systemen mit diskreten Übergängen, z. B. beim Eintreten bestimmter biologischer oder medizinischer Ereignisse.</li></ul>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Anwendungen">Anwendungen</h2></div>
<ul><li><a href="Radiologie" title="Radiologie">Radiologie</a> und <a href="Strahlenschutz" title="Strahlenschutz">Strahlenschutz</a>: Abschätzung des Krebsrisikos bei Strahlenexposition.</li>
<li><a href="Pharmakologie" title="Pharmakologie">Pharmakologie</a>: Bestimmung von Minimal- oder Maximaldosen (NOEL/NOAEL).</li>
<li><a href="Medizin" title="Medizin">Medizin</a>: Entscheidungsunterstützung bei Therapieoptionen.</li>
<li><a href="Genetik" title="Genetik">Genetik</a>: Erklärung diskreter Merkmale in Populationen.</li>
<li><a href="%C3%96kologie" title="Ökologie">Ökologie</a>: Vorhersage von Populationsreaktionen auf Umweltstressoren.</li>
<li><a href="Agrarwissenschaft" class="mw-redirect" title="Agrarwissenschaft">Agrarwissenschaft</a>: Züchtungsprogramme für Merkmale mit Schwellencharakter.</li></ul>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Erweiterungen_und_Forschung">Erweiterungen und Forschung</h2></div>
<ul><li>Quantitative Schwellenwertmodelle für polygenetische Merkmale.</li>
<li>Kombination von genetischen und Umweltfaktoren, um das Auftreten bestimmter Merkmalsausprägungen vorherzusagen.</li>
<li>Anwendung in der Evolutionstheorie, z. B. zur Analyse der Selektion auf diskrete Merkmale.<sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li></ul>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Literatur">Literatur</h2></div>
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<li>Rijsdijk &amp; Sham 2002, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://academic.oup.com/bib/article-pdf/3/2/119/439480/119.pdf">"Analytic approaches to twin data using structural equation models"</a></li>
<li>Chevin, Lande: <cite style="font-style:italic">Evolution of discrete phenotypes from continuous norms of reaction</cite>. In: <cite style="font-style:italic">Am Nat</cite>. 182. Jahrgang, <span style="white-space:nowrap">Nr.<span style="display:inline-block;width:.2em">&nbsp;</span>1</span>, 2013, <span style="white-space:nowrap">S.<span style="display:inline-block;width:.2em">&nbsp;</span>13–27</span>, <a href="Digital_Object_Identifier" title="Digital Object Identifier">doi</a>:<span class="uri-handle" style="white-space:nowrap"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1086/670613">10.1086/670613</a></span>, <a class="external mw-magiclink-pmid" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23778223?dopt=Abstract">PMID 23778223</a>, <a href="Bibcode" title="Bibcode">bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ANat..182...13C">2013ANat..182...13C</a> (<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/239947184">researchgate.net</a> [PDF]).<span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&amp;rfr_id=info:sid/de.wikipedia.org:Threshold-Modell&amp;rft.atitle=Evolution+of+discrete+phenotypes+from+continuous+norms+of+reaction&amp;rft.au=Chevin%2C%26%2332%3BLande&amp;rft.date=2013&amp;rft.doi=10.1086%2F670613&amp;rft.genre=journal&amp;rft.issue=1&amp;rft.jtitle=Am+Nat&amp;rft.pages=13-27&amp;rft.pmid=23778223&amp;rft.volume=182.+Jahrgang" style="display:none">&nbsp;</span></li>
<li>Visscher &amp; Wray 2015, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/2015-visscher.pdf">"Concepts and Misconceptions about the Polygenic Additive Model Applied to Disease"</a></li></ul>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Einzelnachweise">Einzelnachweise</h2></div>
<ol class="references">
<li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-1">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">Falconer 1960, 1965, 1967</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-Costantini-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-Costantini_2-0">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">D. Costantini, B. Borremans: <i>The linear no-threshold model is less realistic than threshold or hormesis-based models: An evolutionary perspective.</i> In: <i>Chemico-biological interactions.</i> Band 301, März 2019, S.&nbsp;26–33, <a href="Digital_Object_Identifier" title="Digital Object Identifier">doi</a>:<span class="uri-handle" style="white-space:nowrap"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbi.2018.10.007">10.1016/j.cbi.2018.10.007</a></span>, <a class="external mw-magiclink-pmid" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30342016?dopt=Abstract">PMID 30342016</a> (Review).</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-3">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">Calabrese, E.J.; Baldwin, L.A. (2003). "The Hormetic Dose-Response Model Is More Common than the Threshold Model in Toxicology". Toxicological Sciences. 71 (2): 246–250. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/toxsci/71.2.246" class="extiw external" title="doi:10.1093/toxsci/71.2.246">doi:10.1093/toxsci/71.2.246</a>. <a class="external mw-magiclink-pmid" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12563110?dopt=Abstract">PMID 12563110</a>.</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-PMID10084191-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-PMID10084191_4-0">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">J. D. Lurie, H. C. Sox: <i>Principles of medical decision making.</i> In: <i>Spine.</i> Band 24, Nummer 5, März 1999, S.&nbsp;493–498, <a href="Digital_Object_Identifier" title="Digital Object Identifier">doi</a>:<span class="uri-handle" style="white-space:nowrap"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1097/00007632-199903010-00021">10.1097/00007632-199903010-00021</a></span>, <a class="external mw-magiclink-pmid" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10084191?dopt=Abstract">PMID 10084191</a> (Review).</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-5">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">S Wright: <cite style="font-style:italic">An Analysis of Variability in Number of Digits in an Inbred Strain of Guinea Pigs</cite>. In: <cite style="font-style:italic">Genetics</cite>. 19. Jahrgang, <span style="white-space:nowrap">Nr.<span style="display:inline-block;width:.2em">&nbsp;</span>6</span>, 1934, <span style="white-space:nowrap">S.<span style="display:inline-block;width:.2em">&nbsp;</span>506–36</span>, <a href="Digital_Object_Identifier" title="Digital Object Identifier">doi</a>:<span class="uri-handle" style="white-space:nowrap"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1093/genetics%2F19.6.506">10.1093/genetics/19.6.506</a></span>, <a class="external mw-magiclink-pmid" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17246735?dopt=Abstract">PMID 17246735</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1208511/">PMC&nbsp;1208511</a> (freier Volltext).<span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&amp;rfr_id=info:sid/de.wikipedia.org:Threshold-Modell&amp;rft.atitle=An+Analysis+of+Variability+in+Number+of+Digits+in+an+Inbred+Strain+of+Guinea+Pigs&amp;rft.au=S%26%2332%3BWright&amp;rft.date=1934&amp;rft.doi=10.1093%2Fgenetics%2F19.6.506&amp;rft.genre=journal&amp;rft.issue=6&amp;rft.jtitle=Genetics&amp;rft.pages=506-36&amp;rft.pmc=1208511&amp;rft.pmid=17246735&amp;rft.volume=19.+Jahrgang" style="display:none">&nbsp;</span></span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-6">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">S Wright: <cite style="font-style:italic">The Results of Crosses between Inbred Strains of Guinea Pigs, Differing in Number of Digits</cite>. In: <cite style="font-style:italic">Genetics</cite>. 19. Jahrgang, <span style="white-space:nowrap">Nr.<span style="display:inline-block;width:.2em">&nbsp;</span>6</span>, 1934, <span style="white-space:nowrap">S.<span style="display:inline-block;width:.2em">&nbsp;</span>537–51</span>, <a href="Digital_Object_Identifier" title="Digital Object Identifier">doi</a>:<span class="uri-handle" style="white-space:nowrap"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1093/genetics%2F19.6.537">10.1093/genetics/19.6.537</a></span>, <a class="external mw-magiclink-pmid" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17246736?dopt=Abstract">PMID 17246736</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1208512/">PMC&nbsp;1208512</a> (freier Volltext).<span class="Z3988" title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&amp;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&amp;rfr_id=info:sid/de.wikipedia.org:Threshold-Modell&amp;rft.atitle=The+Results+of+Crosses+between+Inbred+Strains+of+Guinea+Pigs%2C+Differing+in+Number+of+Digits&amp;rft.au=S%26%2332%3BWright&amp;rft.date=1934&amp;rft.doi=10.1093%2Fgenetics%2F19.6.537&amp;rft.genre=journal&amp;rft.issue=6&amp;rft.jtitle=Genetics&amp;rft.pages=537-51&amp;rft.pmc=1208512&amp;rft.pmid=17246736&amp;rft.volume=19.+Jahrgang" style="display:none">&nbsp;</span></span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-7">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">ch18, "Threshold characters", <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/introductiontoq00falc"><i>Introduction to Quantitative Genetics</i></a>, Falconer 1960</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-8">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160815214451/https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/182368464/1965-falconer.pdf">"The inheritance of liability to certain diseases, estimated from the incidence among relatives"</a>, Falconer 1965</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-9">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160815203446/https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/182368464/1967-falconer.pdf">"The inheritance of liability to diseases with variable age of onset, with particular reference to diabetes mellitus"</a>, Falconer 1967</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-10">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.genetics.org/content/167/4/1529">"D. S. Falconer and <i>Introduction to Quantitative Genetics</i>"</a>, Hill &amp; Mackay 2004</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-PMID29739620-11"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-PMID29739620_11-0">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">A. Lange, H. L. Nemeschkal, G. B. Müller: <i>A threshold model for polydactyly.</i> In: <i>Progress in biophysics and molecular biology.</i> Band 137, September 2018, S.&nbsp;1–11, <a href="Digital_Object_Identifier" title="Digital Object Identifier">doi</a>:<span class="uri-handle" style="white-space:nowrap"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pbiomolbio.2018.04.007">10.1016/j.pbiomolbio.2018.04.007</a></span>, <a class="external mw-magiclink-pmid" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29739620?dopt=Abstract">PMID 29739620</a> (Review).</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-12"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-12">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">H. Tong: <i>Non-linear Time Series: A Dynamical System Approach</i>, 1990, OUP. ISBN 0-19-852224-X.</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-13"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-13">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">H. Tong 1990</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-14"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-14">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text">Chevin &amp; Lande 2013</span>
</li>
</ol>
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